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INSP SitRep N°125, data as of 16 September, published 17 September and carried by ECDC on 18 September at 14:20, puts DRC at 7,475 confirmed cases and 3,605 deaths; with Uganda's final 20 / 2 the combined headline moves to 7,495 / 3,607 at a crude case-fatality rate of 48.1%. Three days since the 13 September SitRep N°122 cut: 217 cases and 95 deaths, roughly 72 cases and 32 deaths a day. SitRep N°125's own 24-hour window is 71 cases (Ituri 41, North Kivu 27, Haut-Uele 2, Tshopo 1) and 28 deaths, 18 of them in the community. The province table sums exactly. Isolation holds at 905; recoveries reach 1,798. Contact follow-up of identified contacts recovers from 78.6% to 87.6% (26,181 of 29,873), back above INSP's 85% threshold. North Kivu occupancy of 228 normed beds is 96.9%, with 42.1% of hospitalised patients treated outside a treatment unit and no beds in Butembo or Katwa; Beni took 14 of the province's 27 new confirmations that day. Tedros said on 16 September the fight is far from over. EbolaIntel still does not treat the government peak claim as a turning point.

No new national SitRep has landed since N°122. ECDC's outbreak page is still the 15 September 15:40 cut, data as of 13 September: DRC 7,258 / 3,510, combined headline 7,278 / 3,512. What is new is how officials describe that cut. Muyembe, briefing in Kinshasa on 15 September after Bunia, said a national peak is hard to read because Ituri is on a descending slope while North Kivu has not reached a plateau, and told partners not to hear 'under control' as the end of the outbreak. He cited contact follow-up rising from below 40% to above 80% and suspect-sample positivity falling from about 60% to 20-25%; those are his field figures, not a replacement for SitRep N°122's 78.6% follow-up and 20.9% Ituri positivity on 13 September. AFP in Le Monde carries WHO's Olivier le Polain from the same day's Geneva briefing: North Kivu weekly cases roughly doubled to more than 200, about 45% of the previous week's national total, with no confirmed case in South Kivu since late May and Haut-Uele at about 30 to 40 new cases a week. EbolaIntel still does not treat the government peak claim as a turning point.

INSP SitRep N°122, data as of 13 September, published 14 September and carried by ECDC on 15 September at 15:40, puts DRC at 7,258 confirmed cases and 3,510 deaths; with Uganda's final 20 / 2 the combined headline moves to 7,278 / 3,512 at a crude case-fatality rate of 48.3%. One day since the 12 September cut: 58 cases (Ituri 44, North Kivu 12, Haut-Uele 2) and 35 deaths, 23 of them in the community. The province table sums exactly. This site declined to carry 7,258 / 3,510 on 15 September when it appeared only in an Actualite.cd wrap; the SitRep PDF and ECDC now corroborate it. Contact follow-up of identified contacts falls from 88% to 78.6% (21,935 of 27,905), below INSP's 85% threshold, with North Kivu at 69.2%. Isolation eases to 905 from 923; recoveries reach 1,726. North Kivu occupancy is 145.6%, with no beds in Butembo or Katwa and 45% of hospitalised patients treated outside an Ebola treatment unit. Seven zones have gone about 42 days without a new confirmed case, including Goma. WHO's Olivier le Polain said on 15 September it is too early to say a peak has been passed; Julien Harneis called the epidemic still deadly and massive, with the humanitarian plan 49% funded. CDC MMWR of 15 September finds 5,458 confirmed cases in the first 100 days, seven times West Africa 2014 at the same point.

No new national SitRep has landed. ECDC's outbreak page is still the 14 September 13:30 cut, data as of 12 September: DRC 7,200 confirmed cases and 3,475 deaths, combined headline 7,220 / 3,477. The Guardian dated that same 7,200 / 3,475 as of 14 September; it is the same cut, not a newer one. An Actualite.cd wrap of a Katwa briefing mentioned 7,258 / 3,510 as of 13 September; that figure is uncorroborated against ECDC, 7sur7's transcription of the 13 September epidemiological report, and the Guardian, so it is not used. What is new is operational. Kamba on 15 September repeated that the peak is past, putting daily confirmations at about 80 against about 120, daily deaths at about 30 against about 50, and the reproduction number at 0.9; he said six of 62 zones have gone more than 42 days without a new case and four more have passed 21 days, leaving 52 still in active transmission. Those last figures are the minister's, not WHO or Africa CDC. Bunia MP Iracan Gratien de Saint-Nicolas told the Guardian the same day that claims of control need public indicators and warned against triumphalism. The 13 September epidemiological report, transcribed by 7sur7, adds recoveries of 1,712 to the 12 September cut, from 1,671 on 10 September. Radio Okapi reported on 14 September that response work in Damas, Ituri, has been suspended since 13 September over three months of unpaid risk bonuses, and that community deaths in Bule continue daily with a single ambulance that cannot run after dark. Katwa's health-zone chief said 16 health workers in that zone have been infected and three have died; Katwa's 10 September SitRep counts of 499 / 320 are not overwritten, because the briefing's zone totals (487 / 333) do not reconcile with that table.

Three days have landed since the 9 September figure this site last carried. SitRep N°119, data as of 10 September, transcribed by the INRB-UMIE extract and independently carried by AFP, Al Jazeera and the Independent, puts DRC at 7,022 confirmed cases and 3,398 deaths, the first cut past 7,000. A DRC situation update published 13 September, data as of 12 September, carried by the ECDC outbreak page updated 14 September at 13:30, then lifts DRC to 7,200 / 3,475; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 7,220 / 3,477 at a crude case-fatality rate of 48.2%, +258 cases and +126 deaths in three days, roughly 86 cases and 42 deaths a day. Sud-Ubangi, in the north-west, recorded its first confirmed case on 10 September in Bulu health zone, a 62nd affected zone and the first detection west of the eastern cluster; the patient had developed symptoms in Kisangani after travelling through Rwanda, Uganda and Ituri, then continued by river. The 10 September case split sums exactly: Ituri 5,538, North Kivu 1,182, Haut-Uele 270, Tshopo 24, South Kivu 3, Bas-Uele 4, Sud-Ubangi 1. North Kivu took 53.8% of that day's 80 new confirmations against Ituri's 37.5%. Isolation has climbed to 923 from 823 on 9 September; contact follow-up of identified contacts is 88%. The DRC government said on 11 September the outbreak is under control and peaked in the third week of August; WHO's latest weekly assessment, as reported by Xinhua, is that it remains uncontrolled and increasingly heterogeneous. Radio Okapi reported three confirmed cases on 13 September at the Savo displacement site in Djugu, Ituri, among more than 70,000 displaced people.

Four daily cuts have landed since the 5 September figure this site last carried. SitRep N°118, reporting date 9 September and published 10 September, puts DRC at 6,942 confirmed cases and 3,349 deaths; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 6,962 / 3,351 at a crude case-fatality rate of 48.1%, +338 cases and +174 deaths in four days, roughly 85 cases and 44 deaths a day. The intermediate cuts are 6,686 / 3,226 on 6 September, 6,757 / 3,267 on 7 September and 6,843 / 3,310 on 8 September, all now in the snapshot series. The one-day movement onto the current cut is 99 confirmed cases (Ituri 47, North Kivu 46, Haut-Uele 6) against 39 deaths, 29 of them in the community. The day's story is North Kivu: 46.5% of new confirmations against Ituri's 47.5%, a cumulative 1,139 / 725 at a case-fatality ratio of 63.7%, and INSP's own key messages flagging the province for a profile they call worrying beyond its characteristic lethality. Its treatment centres held 291 patients against 220 beds, an occupancy of 132.2% the SitRep labels oversaturation, while Ituri sat at 46.2% of 989 beds; the single priority action listed is to expand North Kivu capacity. North Kivu also returned 46 positives from 139 samples, a test-positivity rate of 33.1% against Ituri's 15.1%, which suggests the province count still understates spread. Contact follow-up fell to 84.4% of identified contacts, below the 85% threshold INSP sets for itself, with Haut-Uele weakest at 79.7%. The province split reconciles exactly: Ituri 5,508 / 2,501, North Kivu 1,139 / 725, Haut-Uele 264 / 110, Tshopo 24 / 9, South Kivu 3 / 1, Bas-Uele 4 / 3. No health zone has been added since Kayna on 3 September: 61 of 151, and 246 health areas of 3,104. Four North Kivu markers were added to the map (Katwa 486 / 309, Butembo 220 / 149, Beni 195 / 145, Mabalako 18 / 8), which previously showed the province through three markers totalling 94 cases. WHO Disease Outbreak News 617, published 10 September with the 7 September cut, adds 2,007 people vaccinated with the Zaire-licensed Ervebo across three provinces as of 6 September and PARTNERS trial enrolment above 300 confirmed patients at five Ituri facilities.

SitRep N°114, data as of 5 September and published 6 September, lifts DRC to 6,604 confirmed cases and 3,175 deaths; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 6,624 / 3,177 at a crude case-fatality rate of 48.0%, +418 cases and +168 deaths across five days since the 31 August figure this site last carried, roughly 84 cases and 34 deaths a day. The one-day movement onto this cut is 82 cases (Ituri 49, North Kivu 31, Haut-Uele 2) and 41 deaths, 32 of them in the community. North Kivu has passed 1,000 confirmed cases at 1,000 / 659 (CFR 65.9%) from 16 of 34 health zones, and Kayna in Lubero territory became the 61st affected zone on 3 September with a single confirmed case detected at an AFC/M23 checkpoint, the first zone added since 26 August. The six-province split reconciles exactly: Ituri 5,326 / 2,398 (28/36), North Kivu 1,000 / 659, Haut-Uele 249 / 105, Tshopo 22 / 9, South Kivu 3 / 1, Bas-Uele 4 / 3. Contact follow-up slipped to 85.7% of identified contacts from 88%, isolation occupancy rose to 851 from 830, recoveries to 1,548 from 1,409. Africa CDC said on 3 September it remains too early to call the outbreak under control, even as four zones had gone more than 42 days without a new case. WHO Africa Region reported treatment capacity at 1,346 beds nationally as of 1 September, up from nine beds on 19 May, with some Bunia centres at 90 to 100% occupancy.

SitRep N°0109, data as of 31 August and relayed by ECDC on 2 September, lifts DRC to 6,186 confirmed cases and 3,007 deaths; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 6,206 / 3,009 at a crude case-fatality rate of 48.5%, +86 cases and +57 deaths in one day since the 30 August figure this site carried yesterday. North Kivu took 32 of the 86 new cases and 23 of the 57 deaths, a one-day share well above its usual, while Ituri took 49 cases and Haut-Uele 5; Tshopo, South Kivu and Bas-Uele were flat, and 60 of 151 health zones remain affected. Contact follow-up climbed to 88% of identified contacts from 86.3%, isolation occupancy to 830 from 814, recoveries to 1,409 from 1,383. A CDC MMWR published 1 September, covering the 21 days to 21 August, reports that only 15 to 20% of new confirmed cases had been identified as contacts and that 59% of confirmed deaths occurred outside a treatment unit, which it calls uncontrolled expansion. UN relief chief Tom Fletcher said on 1 September that an incremental response is no longer enough for an exponentially growing epidemic, against a $1.1 billion humanitarian funding gap. Schools reopened in Ituri on 1 September despite a teachers' union call to delay.

SitRep N°0108, data as of 30 August and relayed by ECDC on 1 September, lifts DRC to 6,100 confirmed cases and 2,950 deaths; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 6,120 / 2,952 at a crude case-fatality rate of 48.2%, +306 cases and +164 deaths across the four cuts since the 26 August figure this site carried through the weekend, roughly 77 cases and 41 deaths a day. The one-day movement is 59 cases (Ituri 44, North Kivu 8, Haut-Uele 6, Bas-Uele 1) against 39 deaths. No province added a health zone: 60 of 151 remain affected, the first pause in zone-level expansion since North Kivu went from 13 to 15 the previous week, and the growth is inside existing zones, Haut-Uele adding 28 cases in four days on six zones. Bas-Uele records its second and third deaths on four cases. Operations improve on every indicator ECDC carries: contact follow-up 86.3% of identified contacts from 82.3%, isolation occupancy down to 814 from 843, recoveries 1,383 from 1,293.

No new national cut today: the ECDC relay still carries SitRep N°0104 with data as of 26 August, and its next epidemiological update is scheduled for 31 August, so the headline holds at 5,814 cases and 2,788 deaths. What moved is the WHO reporting chain. Disease Outbreak News 616, published 28 August and the first since 14 August, carries the same 26 August cut but puts the global total at 5,815 confirmed cases and 2,788 deaths, one case above ours, because it folds in the single case exported to France in June alongside DRC's 5,794 and Uganda's 20 while our headline counts DRC and Uganda only. The DON adds three numbers this site did not carry: the contact-tracing denominator behind the 82.3%, 22,091 contacts seen of 26,850 to follow up in the preceding 24 hours; PARTNERS enrolment above 250 confirmed cases across its three Ituri facilities, up from the 100 the Director-General reported on 18 August; and 76 Ebola-related signals investigated across 23 countries and territories between 18 May and 28 August, 92% of them ruled out. It also sets the current 48.1% case-fatality rate against the two previous Bundibugyo outbreaks, 30% in Uganda in 2007 and 50% in DRC in 2012, and restates the risk assessment as very high for DRC and high for bordering countries with no travel or trade restrictions advised. Separately, the Public Health Agency of Canada extended its temporary border measures on 28 August for a further 30 days to 28 September; this page had carried the original 29 August expiry.

SitRep N°0104, data as of 26 August, lifts DRC to 5,794 confirmed cases and 2,786 deaths; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 5,814 / 2,788 at a crude case-fatality rate of 47.9%, +138 cases and +71 deaths across the two cuts since Wednesday's refresh. North Kivu went from 13 affected health zones to 15 in two days, taking the national count to 60 of 151 across six provinces, and its cumulative case-fatality ratio of 68.0% stays the worst of the six. Operations recovered: contact follow-up back to 82.3% of identified contacts from 80.9%, recoveries to 1,293, isolation occupancy up to 843 patients with 431 suspected cases pending.

Health minister Roger Kamba gave the first dose to a health worker in Kisangani, capital of Tshopo, on 27 August, launching the frontline-worker arm of the 70,000-dose Ervebo release. The rollout starts in Tshopo, Bas-Uele and Haut-Uele, the three least affected of the six counted provinces, and works inward toward Ituri. We have written the campaign into the outbreak pages in both languages with the strain caveat intact: Ervebo is licensed for Zaire ebolavirus only, the frontline arm is compassionate use, the stated cross-protection rationale is a hypothesis, and the 20,000-dose trial is what will test it.

Since Uganda's Ministry of Health declared its outbreak over on 28 July, this page had recorded that WHO had published no concurrence and had named that gap explicitly. WHO declared the outbreak over on 26 August after 42 days without a new confirmed case, and the outbreak pages in both languages have been rewritten to say so. The final Ugandan count is unchanged at 20 confirmed cases and 2 deaths, and it stays inside the cumulative headline.

SitRep N°0102, published 25 August with data as of 24 August, lifts DRC to 5,656 confirmed cases and 2,715 deaths; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 5,676 / 2,717 at a crude case-fatality rate of 47.9%, +142 cases and +73 deaths across the two cuts since Monday's refresh. Bas-Uele gained its third affected health zone while North Kivu held at thirteen, taking the count to 58 of 151 across six provinces. The operational picture softened: contact follow-up fell from 83.4% to 80.9% of identified contacts, while recoveries rose to 1,245 and isolation occupancy eased to 792 patients. Ituri took 61 of the day's 72 new cases.

WHO published the second IHR Emergency Committee statement on 24 August. The Director-General issued updated temporary recommendations, which keeps the PHEIC determination in force and resolves the open question our pages had tracked since 21 August. Structural changes we now reflect on the classification sections: only the DRC remains in the community-transmission group (Uganda moves to the neighbouring-country list after its 28 July end declaration), and a new section instructs DRC to postpone mass gatherings, decongest bars and nightclubs, cap motorbike passengers at one, open schools safely, run 24/7 road checkpoints out of affected areas and screen river vessels toward major urban centres including Kinshasa. No case or death figures changed; ECDC had published no fresher cut when this entry was written.

SitRep N°0100, published 23 August with data as of 22 August, lifts DRC to 5,514 confirmed cases and 2,642 deaths; the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline moves to 5,534 / 2,644 at a crude case-fatality rate of 47.8%, +224 cases and +126 deaths across the three weekend cuts since Thursday's 19 August figures. North Kivu gained its thirteenth affected health zone, taking the count to 57 of 151 health zones across six provinces; operations ticked up (contact follow-up 83.4%, recoveries 1,200, 808 in isolation). Separately noted: more than 16,000 doses of the allocated 70,000 Ervebo doses arrived in DRC on 22 August.

No new epidemiological cut before Monday, so the headline holds at 5,310 / 2,518. Added: Kaseya telling AFP at day 100 that roughly US$700 million of a promised US$1 billion is inventoried as committed, with detection delay blamed on DRC being geared to the Zaire strain; Tedros's 22 August X post urging all actors to do more; RFI's detailing of the 17 August Aru and Biringi incidents (a driver in a coma, suspected cases and convalescents lost from follow-up, 21 of 171 rings opened on 15 August, five ambulances operational in North Kivu); and a DW piece on population mobility defeating contact follow-up around Mongbwalu.

No new INSP cut has landed since the 19 August figures, so the headline stands at 5,310 / 2,518 and the next structured update is due Monday when ECDC resumes. The brief gains the assessments of 20-21 August: WHO Ebola coordinator Julien Harneis describing exponential growth with half of all deaths in the preceding twenty days and an affected area larger than France, and Africa CDC estimating official counts capture 30-40 percent of infections. New threads recorded: M23 suspending taxis and boats between its areas and government-held North Kivu from 22 August, an Africa CDC plan to shield the river corridors and Kinshasa, a mob attack on a health team in Aru territory on 17 August, Gavi funding for the Ervebo deployment, and Save the Children reporting at least 180 children have lost parents or caregivers.

The INSP report published 20 August with data as of 19 August lifts DRC to 5,290 confirmed cases and 2,516 deaths, a case-fatality rate of 47.6%; with Uganda's final 20 / 2 the combined headline reads 5,310 cases and 2,518 deaths at 47.4%. EbolaIntel published nothing between 7 and 21 August, so fourteen days land together at +1,237 cases and +666 deaths; the only intermediate relay captured is ECDC's 12 August update carrying 4,469 / 2,063 as of 10 August, which is backfilled into the snapshot series, and no points are reconstructed between the two. The combined death toll passed the 2,299 of the 2018-2020 Kivu epidemic during the week ending 17 August, making this the deadliest Ebola outbreak in DRC's history per WHO as reported by UN News, while the Director-General told the second IHR Emergency Committee on 18 August it is the second-largest ever recorded. Bas-Uele became the sixth affected province on a Buta case with onset 4 August and travel history to Haut-Uele; the province split as of 19 August reconciles exactly across six provinces and 56 of 151 health zones, the denominator having grown from 140 with Bas-Uele's zones. Contact-tracing follow-up recovered to 82.9% of identified contacts from 77.7%, 837 patients are hospitalised and 1,152 have recovered.

The International Coordinating Group informed Kinshasa on 17 August of an initial release of 70,000 Ervebo doses: 20,000 for a Phase 3 randomised trial against Bundibugyo virus recommended by WHO's candidate vaccine prioritisation group, and 50,000 for frontline and health workers under SAGE recommendations, meaning some vaccination happens outside any trial. WHO states it is not known whether Ervebo protects against Bundibugyo virus in humans; early laboratory and animal data suggest some possible protection, and informed consent is emphasised. This is an emergency deployment wrapped around a trial, not a licence extension: Ervebo remains approved for Zaire ebolavirus only, and no Bundibugyo vaccine or therapeutic has been approved, listed or prequalified. The outbreak briefing, vaccine pages and investigational tracker were updated to carry the allocation without letting it blur that line, alongside the rest of the fortnight's countermeasures news: PARTNERS enrolled its first hundred patients, a second Bundibugyo-specific vaccine trial started in Canada, and CEPI funded Hilleman Laboratories to manufacture rVSV-BDBV clinical doses.

The active outbreak record carries a running editorial brief that has grown with each daily refresh to roughly 50,000 characters. Several templates rendered that string raw, in places built for one or two sentences: the outbreak comparison table on every strain page put the whole brief inside a single table cell, the generic outbreak template rendered it as one undivided block, and it was being used to build page meta descriptions thousands of characters long. The record now carries a separate short summary field, which is what lists, table cells and meta descriptions use, and the full brief renders as discrete paragraphs on the pages built to carry it. The briefing pages in both languages have had their longest bullets split into readable paragraphs. No claim, figure or source changed in this pass.

Situation report N°083/MVE B, data as of 5 August, lifts DRC to 4,053 confirmed cases and 1,850 confirmed deaths, an apparent case-fatality rate of 45.6%. Adding Uganda's final 20 / 2 takes the combined headline to 4,073 cases and 1,852 deaths at a crude case-fatality rate of 45.5%. The outbreak has passed 4,000 confirmed cases. EbolaIntel did not publish on 5 or 6 August, so three cuts land together: a derived 3,874 / 1,749 for 3 August, 3,973 / 1,801 for 4 August and 4,053 / 1,850 for 5 August, a total movement of 251 cases and 143 deaths in three days. The 3 August point is arithmetic from ECDC's stated movement of 99 cases and 52 deaths onto the 4 August cut and is labelled derived, because situation report N°081 has not been seen. The province split as of 4 August reconciles exactly: Ituri 3,460 / 1,464, North Kivu 436 / 292, Haut-Uele 67 / 39, Tshopo 7 / 5, South Kivu 3 / 1. Two provisional readings this page published are now closed and both went against us. The North Kivu death surge of the 2 August cut, which we flagged as possibly registration catch-up rather than transmission, was registration: North Kivu added 22 cases and 7 deaths across the two following cuts and its case-fatality ratio fell from 68.8% back to 67.0%. The southward shift in the epidemic's centre of gravity we called provisional on 3 August has not held, and is retired: Ituri took 143 of 171 new cases and 82 of 93 new deaths across the same two cuts. Contact-tracing follow-up went backwards, from 80.1% of identified contacts for 1 August to 77.7% for 5 August, with Africa CDC and WHO putting it at 75% as of 4 August against a 95% target. Health zones moved from 51 to 53 of 140, with no split published for the new count.

The State Department announced on 5 August that it intends, working with Congress, to provide an additional US$242 million for Ebola response and preparedness in DRC and Uganda and for related humanitarian assistance, bringing total direct State Department assistance for this outbreak to more than US$512 million and making the United States the largest single financial contributor to the response. The announcement is aligned with the commitment of up to a further US$500 million made at the G7 leaders summit on 16 June. It is the largest single movement on the funding gap this outbreak has produced, against an Africa CDC estimate that the combined humanitarian and health response requires about US$1.4 billion. EbolaIntel carries it alongside, not instead of, the entry restrictions from the same government that Samaritan's Purse has said impede staffing of treatment facilities. Added alongside UN News reporting of 3 August that the International Medical Corps has opened a 100-bed treatment centre at the Kigonze displacement camp outside Bunia, described as the largest in the country. The state.gov release refuses automated requests, so the citation runs through a mirror.

Situation report N°080/MVE B, published 3 August with data as of 2 August, lifts DRC to 3,802 confirmed cases and 1,707 confirmed deaths, an apparent case-fatality rate of 44.9%. Adding Uganda's final 20 / 2 takes the combined headline to 3,822 cases and 1,709 deaths at a crude case-fatality rate of 44.7%. The movement is 54 cases and 50 deaths in one day, a ratio of 0.93 deaths per new case against roughly 0.49 on each of the two preceding one-day cuts; a day of death-registration catch-up would look the same from outside, so we flag the ratio rather than interpret it. The province split reconciles exactly in both columns: Ituri 3,317 / 1,382, North Kivu 414 / 285, Haut-Uele 61 / 34, Tshopo 7 / 5, South Kivu 3 / 1. North Kivu took 23 of the 50 new deaths, exactly as many as Ituri on an eight times smaller caseload, while taking only 14 of the 54 new cases, and its case-fatality ratio reversed a three-cut decline to reach 68.8%, its highest of the outbreak. Haut-Uele added one case and four deaths. Tshopo and South Kivu were flat for a second consecutive cut. Health zones moved from 49 to 51 across two days, North Kivu to 12 of 34 and Tshopo to 5 of 23.

ECDC's 3 August update puts contact-tracing follow-up at 80.1%, crossing 80% for the first time, while this page continues to report that roughly four in five new confirmed cases arrive with no traceable link to a contact list. Those are not in conflict: the 80.1% is a share of the contacts the response has managed to identify, not of the contacts that exist. Africa CDC has been quoted putting the second figure at under 9% of the contacts that ought to be traced, which is the only published estimate that reconciles the two, though it reaches us through a politically committed outlet and we carry it as attributed rather than established. Every contact-tracing percentage on this site now carries the denominator explicitly. Separately, the International Rescue Committee's widely quoted figure that only 20% of contacts were being traced dates from 1 June and describes the outbreak's second month; it is relayed in places without that date, and we have dated it.

Situation report N°079/MVE B, published 3 August with data as of 1 August, lifts DRC to 3,748 confirmed cases and 1,657 confirmed deaths, an apparent case-fatality rate of 44.2%. Adding Uganda's final 20 / 2 takes the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline to 3,768 cases and 1,659 deaths at a crude case-fatality rate of 44.0%, a movement of 74 cases and 36 deaths on the previous cut and an ordinary day. The province split reconciles exactly in both columns: Ituri 3,278 / 1,359, North Kivu 400 / 262, Haut-Uele 60 / 30, Tshopo 7 / 5, South Kivu 3 / 1. The signal in this cut is where the new cases landed. Ituri holds 87.5% of the cumulative total but took only 49 of the 74 new cases, while North Kivu, holding 10.7%, took 22 of them and 11 of the 36 new deaths, close to three times its standing share on both counts. That is the second published split running in which North Kivu outgrows its share, and the first sign in weeks of a possible southward shift in the epidemic's centre of gravity, though the previous split spanned four days rather than one and we report the reading as provisional. North Kivu crossed 400 confirmed cases and its case-fatality ratio fell for a third consecutive reading to 65.5%. Tshopo and South Kivu both stood still, the first cut in this series in which neither moved. The health-zone count holds at 49 of 140.

Reporting by CIDRAP of the Africa CDC briefing of 30 July adds two measures this site had not carried: the case count is running at roughly seven times what the 2013-2016 West Africa epidemic had recorded at the equivalent point in its own course, and national test positivity is above 40%, against the 38.1% Ituri figure the 18 July situation report gave. We read a positivity rate that high as evidence of under-testing rather than of a well-characterised epidemic. Jean Kaseya said he would travel to Bunia the following week. The outbreak page also records the current state of the reporting chain: WHO's Disease Outbreak News stands at DON614 with the 30 July cut, its weekly external situation report is still number 11 with the 26 July cut and is six days stale with number 12 due 4 August, ECDC still carries the 28 July cut and the update it had scheduled for 3 August had not appeared when we checked, and the INRB-UMIE GitHub mirror reached SitRep 78 on 2 August.

Situation report N°078/MVE B, published 2 August with data as of 31 July, lifts DRC to 3,674 confirmed cases and 1,621 confirmed deaths, an apparent case-fatality rate of 44.1%. The province split reconciles exactly in both columns: Ituri 3,229 / 1,336, North Kivu 378 / 251, Haut-Uele 57 / 28, Tshopo 7 / 5, South Kivu 3 / 1. Adding Uganda's final 20 / 2 takes the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline to 3,694 cases and 1,623 deaths at a crude case-fatality rate of 43.9%. Once the 30 July point is corrected (see the separate correction entry), the real one-day movement is 69 confirmed cases and 34 confirmed deaths, an ordinary day rather than a backlog reclassification. North Kivu's case-fatality ratio fell from 68.6% to 66.4%, its first improvement in weeks, as cases grew faster than deaths; Haut-Uele eased from 53.8% to 49.1%. The health-zone count holds at 49 of 140 and WHO has now published the split, answering which province gained the 49th zone: Tshopo moved from three of 23 to four.

On 1 August this site published DRC at 3,532 confirmed cases and 1,556 confirmed deaths for the 30 July cut, on the ministry point de situation relayed by Al Jazeera, CNN and Agence France-Presse, and explicitly set aside a higher figure of 3,605 / 1,587 that the English Wikipedia infobox carried from the DRC communications ministry channel, on the stated grounds that no second source corroborated it. WHO Disease Outbreak News 614, published 1 August, gives 3,605 / 1,587 for that same 30 July cut. The relay we declined was right and our figure was 73 cases and 31 deaths low. The snapshot series point for 1 August has been revised to 3,625 / 1,589 including Uganda's final 20 / 2, and the note on that point records the original figure and the reason for the revision. The consequence for today is that the apparent 142-case, 65-death jump in our own series is mostly this correction rather than transmission.

DON614 of 1 August is the first Disease Outbreak News since DON613 of 17 July, closing a fifteen-day gap between data cuts in which WHO's flagship product had fallen 1,481 cases behind national reporting. It states that this is now the largest recorded Ebola virus disease outbreak in DRC, surpassing the 2018-2020 Kivu epidemic, which it puts at 3,317 confirmed cases (WHO's final account of Kivu is 3,481 total, 3,323 confirmed and 158 probable). It counts 3,626 cases in total, 3,605 in DRC, 20 in Uganda and one imported case in France, with 1,589 deaths, 651 DRC recoveries and 18 Ugandan ones. It supplies detail the national reports do not: epidemiological week 30 was the worst of the outbreak at 567 confirmed cases and 296 deaths; health-worker infections reached 151 with 44 deaths and 68 recoveries, up from 119 / 36 / 61; 17,863 contacts identified with 13,455 under active follow-up, a 75.3% national rate below the 78.3% the ministry publishes. It records Uganda's 28 July end-of-outbreak declaration, resolving the discrepancy this site flagged on 30 July with the 27 August clock WHO Africa Region had been running, and assesses the risk as very high in DRC, high in Uganda and neighbouring countries, and low globally.

The DRC point de situation published 31 July, with data as of 30 July, lifts DRC to 3,532 confirmed cases and 1,556 confirmed deaths, up 90 and 35 on the 28 July cut across two days of data, with 807 hospitalised or in isolation and 626 recovered. Adding Uganda's final 20 / 2 takes the combined headline to 3,552 / 1,558. WHO published its own figure on 31 July, at least 3,553 cases and at least 1,558 deaths, which matches our combined total exactly on deaths and to within one case. The health-zone count moves to 49 of 140 from 48. Contact-tracing follow-up holds at 78.3%, but roughly four in five new confirmed cases still have no traceable link to a contact list.

For the past week EbolaIntel distinguished between two readings of the second-largest question: confirmed against confirmed, on which the outbreak had already passed the 2018-2020 Kivu epidemic, and against Kivu's 3,470 to 3,481 headline total that folds in probable cases, on which it had not. DRC's 3,532 confirmed now clears both, by about 209 on the first and by roughly 51 to 62 on the second, so the distinction no longer changes the answer and we have retired it. Al Jazeera, CNN, the Associated Press and TRT World all declared the outbreak the world's second largest on 31 July.

The English Wikipedia outbreak article's infobox, citing the DRC communications ministry's own channel and accessed on 1 August, shows DRC at 3,605 confirmed cases, 1,587 deaths and 651 recovered, ahead of the 3,532 / 1,556 we carry. No second source corroborates it, the same article's body text and province table still stand at SitRep N°074/MVB, and its per-country rows sum to one case below its own total row. We have left it out of the headline and recorded it here so the omission is auditable, and will fold it in when a second source carries it.

The DRC health ministry update published 30 July, with data as of 28 July, lifts DRC to 3,442 confirmed cases and 1,521 confirmed deaths, a rise of 82 cases and 34 deaths on SitRep N°074/MVB. Adding Uganda's final 20 / 2 takes the combined headline to 3,462 / 1,523 at a crude case-fatality rate near 44%. Contact-tracing follow-up slipped to 78.3% from 78.9%, ending three cuts of improvement, while the number hospitalised or in isolation rose from 733 to 797. On the series numbering this cut is SitRep N°075/MVB, a number we infer rather than sighted: insp.cd blocks automated requests, and ECDC, the INRB-UMIE GitHub mirror and the English Wikipedia article all still stand at SitRep N°074, so we carry the figure on wire reporting and no province-level split has been published for it. The most recent published split remains SitRep N°074: Ituri 2,988 / 1,238, North Kivu 325 / 223, Haut-Uele 39 / 21, Tshopo 5 / 4, South Kivu 3 / 1, across 48 of 140 health zones.

With DRC at 3,442 confirmed cases, the outbreak now stands about 119 above the 3,323 confirmed cases in WHO's final account of the 2018-2020 Kivu epidemic, roughly triple the margin of two days ago, so on the confirmed-against-confirmed comparison this is comfortably the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record. Against the 3,470 to 3,481 total that folds in Kivu's probable cases, DRC alone remains 28 to 39 short and our combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline of 3,462 is 8 to 19 short. We continue to carry both readings rather than pick the one that reads more dramatically. On deaths the gap is still wide: 1,523 against Kivu's 2,299.

Africa CDC director general Jean Kaseya said alongside the 30 July ministry update that 63% of confirmed deaths over the preceding two weeks happened outside treatment centres, attributing this largely to unsafe handling of bodies by relatives and neighbours. We have added the figure to the outbreak page next to the 92.3% of 430 deaths investigated to 5 July that ECDC recorded as occurring in the community or before admission, with an explicit note that the two are not directly comparable: different windows, different denominators.

Our 29 July refresh reported Uganda as being on day thirteen of a 42-day countdown running to an outbreak-over declaration on 27 August, and treated the reports of an Ugandan "Ebola-free" declaration circulating on 28 July as secondary overclaims. That was wrong. Uganda's Ministry of Health had declared the end of the 2026 Ebola disease outbreak on 28 July 2026, a day before we published, with a final count of 20 confirmed cases, 18 recoveries and 2 deaths. We had anchored the countdown on WHO Africa Region's 16 July announcement, which set day zero at the discharge of the last confirmed case and pointed to 27 August; the Ministry counted its 42 days from the discharge of the last Ugandan national on 16 June instead, which lands on 28 July. Both dates are now reported, along with the fact that Uganda's last confirmed case was reported on 21 June, five days after the Ministry's day zero, and that WHO has published no concurrence with the declaration. Uganda's 20 cases and 2 deaths remain inside the cumulative headline, which counts the epidemic rather than the active caseload.

SitRep N°074/MVB, data as of 27 July and published 29 July, lifts DRC to 3,360 confirmed cases and 1,487 confirmed deaths, a rise of 98 cases and 50 deaths on SitRep N°073/MVB. Adding Uganda's final 20 / 2 takes the combined headline to 3,380 / 1,489 at a crude case-fatality rate near 44%. The province split reconciles exactly in both columns this cut, closing the one-case gap we declined to adopt a day earlier: Ituri 2,988 / 1,238, North Kivu 325 / 223, Haut-Uele 39 / 21, Tshopo 5 / 4, South Kivu 3 / 1. North Kivu's case-fatality ratio jumped from 65.0% to 68.6% on 11 new cases and 19 new deaths. Health zones hold at 48 of 140, contact-tracing follow-up edged up to 78.9%, with 597 recovered and 733 hospitalised in isolation. Both structured mirrors now track the primary: ECDC updated to SitRep N°074 on 29 July and the INRB-UMIE GitHub mirror advanced to SitRep 74.

Added an explicit account of where this outbreak now sits against the 2018-2020 Kivu epidemic, because the two common ways of measuring it give different answers. WHO's final account of Kivu is 3,481 cases made up of 3,323 confirmed and 158 probable, with 2,299 deaths; other tallies round the total to 3,470. EbolaIntel counts confirmed cases only, so DRC's 3,360 confirmed cases now stand about 37 above Kivu's 3,323 confirmed, making this the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record on a like-for-like reading. Against the 3,470 to 3,481 total, which folds in probable cases the current DRC count does not attempt to enumerate, it remains roughly 110 to 120 cases short, a day or two at this cadence. We carry both readings rather than picking one, and note that Bloomberg used the 3,470 figure on 27 July.

No new DRC situation report published on 29 July: the INRB-UMIE GitHub mirror of the SitRep series remains frozen at the 26 July cut, SitRep N°073/MVB, DRC 3,262 confirmed cases and 1,437 confirmed deaths, and no SitRep N°074/MVB appears in the mirror, in ECDC, in WHO or in the English Wikipedia article, so the combined DRC-plus-Uganda headline holds at 3,282 cases and 1,439 deaths. The day's movement is in the reporting lag rather than the counts. ECDC has closed a gap that had run for weeks: its outbreak page, updated 28 July at 15:15, now carries SitRep N°073/MVB at 3,262 / 1,437 as of 26 July, level with the national figure and the GitHub mirror, with contact-tracing follow-up at 78.2% across Ituri, North Kivu, Haut-Uele and Tshopo, up from the 77.8% of its previous relay, 583 recovered, 723 hospitalised in isolation and 48 of 140 health zones affected, one more than a cut earlier with the addition in Haut-Uele, now five of its 13. WHO has partly caught up too: its weekly external situation report has advanced from number 09, with data to 12 July, to number 11, with data as of 26 July, which carries DRC at 3,200 / 1,405, the SitRep N°072/MVB cut, and states the cumulative case count has now exceeded both previously documented Bundibugyo outbreaks. Its Disease Outbreak News, however, remains frozen at DON613 (2,124 / 828 as of 15 July), now fourteen days behind. Uganda holds at 20 / 2 on day thirteen of its 42-day countdown, which ends on 27 August if no new case is reported; it has not been declared free, and secondary reports framing 28 July as an Ebola-free declaration overstate WHO's position that the countdown has only begun. At 3,262 confirmed cases DRC still sits a little over 200 short of the 2018-2020 North Kivu epidemic, about 3,470 cases, the mark it would pass to become the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record.